This collection features eleven resources on the topic of probability.

The resources feature:

  • Concept development lessons that focus on developing conceptual understanding of significant mathematical ideas.
  • Problem solving lessons that focus on the application of previously learned mathematics to non-routine unstructured problems.
  • Tasks that provide mathematically rich problems that come with work for students to peer assess.

The Mathematics Assessment Resource Service (MARS) is a collaboration between the University of California at Berkeley and the Shell Centre team at the University of Nottingham, with support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The team is known around the world for its innovative work in maths education.

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Analyzing games of chance

This is a concept development lesson that is designed to help students to:

  • Overcome common misconceptions about probability
  • Count equally likely outcomes using diagrams
  • Discuss relationships between theoretical probabilities, observed outcomes and sample sizes

 

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Designing: a game of chance

This is a problem solving lesson that is designed to help students to:

  • Understand the connection between relative frequency and probability
  • Gain experience of designing and carrying out a probability experiment
  • Calculate a theoretical probability for a practical scenario
...

Evaluating statements about probability

This is a concept development lesson that is designed to assess how well students understand the concepts of:

  • Equally likely events
  • Randomness
  • Sample size

The central theme of the lesson is to address common misconceptions relating to probability. The main activity is to...

Card game: conditional probability

This task assesses how well students understand calculating conditional probability.

The task features a game of ‘higher or lower’ being played with cards numbered 1 to 10. Several turns in a game are shown and students must write the probability that the next card is either higher or lower.

This task...

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